Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Since October 7, 2023, the situation in the Middle East has again flared up after the Hamas attack on Israel. In response, Israel has been conducting disproportionate attacks on Gaza. The United States persistent military and diplomatic support towards Israel has been attributed to its strategic setback in the region. Israel’s campaign in Gaza hinders the United States strategic advancements and has severe repercussions on moral grounds.
The clout of Lobby in Congress
On July 24, the members of the Congress honoured Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a standing ovation.[1] Despite the sharp growing anger among the American public against Israel’s conduct in Gaza, the lawmakers unhindered support over the bill concerning military aid to Israel further deteriorated the situation. The security aid to Israel has experienced a sharp spike totalling around $14 billion has already been cleared by the administration.[2] In addition, the House of Representatives passed bills to allocate around $26 billion for Israel.[3]
President Joe Biden’s administration paused the shipments of bombs to bar Israel from employing U.S. weapons for targeting civilians. In counterproductive, the House of Representatives passed a bill to force Biden to continue weapons shipments to Israel. The White House was seriously concerned with Netanyahu’s approach. President Biden has directly criticised, ‘Netanyahu approach is a mistake’.[4]
However, Israel’s lobby influence on Congress has been persuading in a pro-Israel direction irrespective of party lines. A considerable number of lawmakers from both Republicans and Democrats render unequivocal support. As the U.S. heads for the upcoming election, the hostile view against Israel’s actions would put the re-election of lawmakers in jeopardy as the funding of pro-Israel lobby groups for the candidates plays a significant role. Especially, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), one of the influential groups in the lobby has pledged to spend around $100 million to defeat the members of Congress who are critical towards Israel’s conduct.[5] Indeed, the mere endorsement of Israel’s belligerent policies has been posing severe repercussions for the United States.
Emboldened Iran’s Position
The offensive in Gaza has been spiralling out of Israel’s control, even spectre of a wider war that would draw the United States, Iran and other regional players into the battle. Either the U.S. or Iran have shown steady commitment to avoid engaging in the all-out war despite Israel’s provocative actions. Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria resulted in the death of Iran’s high-ranking general Mohammed Reza Zahedi was a clear violation of the redlines that would obligate any sovereign state to retaliate. Iran had launched a massive aerial attack inside Israel for the first time. This has subsequently bolstered Iran’s deterrence and raised its regional clout as being the first such country to attack Israel after Saddam Hussein’s 1991 attack directly. Iran’s regional heavyweight would isolate the U.S. clout in the region.
The assassination of Hamas Political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran is impelling to respond strongly against Israel. Instead, Tehran has been delaying the retaliation by employing a tool of ‘fierce rhetoric’ as the Iranian leaders have been coercing Israel through its statements of lethal response. Perhaps this compels the United States to actively push for negotiations to strike a cease-fire deal. Subsequently, it would elevate Iran’s stature even among the Arab public as they are more concerned about the Palestinian cause.
The incessant conflict has been enhancing the active role of proxy group operations across the region raising concerns on U.S. military stakes in the Middle East. The Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) has launched 170 missiles at U.S. troops across Iraq, Syria and Jordan also leaving casualties on U.S. troops.[6] The militias claimed that they were acting in opposition to U.S. support for war in Israel. The proxies have been even strengthened by the recruitment of various fighters aligned along the lines of the Palestinian issue. The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have recruited and trained more than 200,000 new fighters since it began its operations targeting the commercial vessels in the Red Sea in support of Palestine.[7]
The Iranian proxies up the ante through multifaceted attacks serving the interests of both proxies and Iran. In addition, the U.S. fears that the instability is also a breeding ground for the comeback of the terror group ‘Islamic State’. The group claimed more than 150 attacks across the countries in the first half of this year.[8] It has further threatened the status of the U.S. troops and military bases which are already in a precarious situation.
Compromising U.S. Strategic Priorities
Former President Barack Obama has announced the strategic shift in U.S. policy by prioritising the ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy to shift focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region to counter its strategic competitor China. His successor, Donald Trump has successfully made the ‘Abraham Accords’ a tool to normalise relations between Arab states and Israel mediated by the United States. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco signed the normalisation agreement with Israel to initiate the diplomatic relations.
However, Saudi Arabia has suspended the negotiations with Israel because of the ongoing crisis. A poll has suggested that 96 per cent of Saudis believe that Arab countries should cut all ties with Israel as an intent of protest.[9] The anti-Israel and anti-American sentiments are raging among the Arab public. The majority of the Saudi people have supported a political solution to the conflict rather than a military approach. So, the agenda of normalisation remains off the table until the cessation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia are nearing to finalise a mega deal that strengthens the defence and trade ties amidst the growing China and Russia’s influence in the region. However, it would not proceed forward without the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The agreement is framed on the aspect of linking the three critical components: an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., normalisation of relations between Tel Aviv and Riyadh and the pathway for the Palestinian state.[10]
So, Riyadh and Washington have been working on plan B without involving Israel to solidify the bilateral defence pact, focusing on the nuclear energy industry, Artificial intelligence and other critical emerging technologies.[11] However, due to the lobby’s leverage, the ratification of the pact in the U.S. Congress would be a significant challenge unless there is a normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel under the Abraham Accords.
Conclusion
Israel’s campaign against Gaza has been again propelling the Middle East on the boil. The reluctance of Netanyahu to strike a cease-fire deal has severely compromised the United States strategic priorities and backfoot on moral ground. Despite the rising anger against Israel among the U.S. public, the pro-Israel lobby inroads in Congress handicap the U.S. autonomy over independent decisions in the Middle East.
[5] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/06/politics/biden-israel-partisan-split-analysis/index.html
[8] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/world/middleeast/isis-attacks-iraq-syria.html
[9] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231223-poll-96-of-saudis-oppose-normalisation-with-israel/
[10] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel
[11] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/01/saudi-us-biden-deal-israel
