Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Dr. Shehab Al-Makahleh
The recent Gaza conflict has brought nuclear weapons into regional conversations in a way not seen since the height of Cold War tensions. In October 2023, Israeli Knesset member Revital “Tally” Gotliv from the Likud party publicly suggested using the “Jericho Missile” and a “Doomsday” nuclear weapon against Hamas. This shocking proposal echoed former U.S. President Trump’s decision to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, creating an arms race-like atmosphere in the region.
Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, and the Iranian response—installing advanced centrifuges and walking back from the Additional Protocol that gave IAEA inspectors access—has strained nuclear diplomacy in the Middle East. Now, the Gaza conflict threatens to push Iran even closer to its goal of nuclear deterrence.
Israel’s military actions, such as the assassinations of high-level Hezbollah and Hamas figures and the intensification of strikes on southern Lebanon, increase the stakes. Despite the restrained response from Hezbollah and Iran, the situation only reinforces Tehran’s desire to match Israel’s nuclear capabilities, creating an even more complex regional security landscape.
A Renewed Call for Diplomacy
The potential escalation with Iran and Hezbollah underscores the need to put nuclear diplomacy back on the table. Should Kamala Harris win the U.S. presidency, her administration could take steps toward reinvigorating nuclear negotiations. Support from progressives in her party could empower her to open a discussion about Israel’s nuclear program—a topic long shrouded in secrecy.
One key possibility is the offer of a U.S. nuclear umbrella as part of a larger security guarantee for Israel. Such an arrangement could incentivize Israel to decommission its estimated 90 nuclear warheads and seriously consider joining a Middle Eastern Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZME). Former Israeli military leaders and Mossad directors have already voiced concerns about Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policies, warning that the country’s nuclear deterrent is of diminishing value against a well-prepared Iran, whose nuclear infrastructure is hidden deep underground.
A Strategic Solution for the Region
The idea of a WMDFZME has long been hampered by political realities, with Israel and Egypt locked in sequencing issues and the U.S. favoring normalization through the Abraham Accords over comprehensive arms control. However, the combination of growing regional instability and a diplomatic overture from the U.S. could break the deadlock.
A comprehensive regional arms control framework could not only resolve Israel-Iran nuclear tensions but also address broader security concerns in the Levant and Gulf regions. It would reduce the risk of nuclear accidents, terrorism, and potential nuclear confrontations—factors that grow more urgent with each passing conflict.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s acknowledgment that Trump’s unilateral exit from the JCPOA was a mistake highlights the reality that diplomacy remains the most viable solution. The ongoing regional tensions only reinforce the urgent need for a durable and effective non-proliferation agreement.
Conclusion
In light of these recent developments, it’s clear that the Gaza War could be a catalyst for reviving nuclear non-proliferation talks in the Middle East. Whether the political will exists—particularly from the United States—to advance a solution that includes Israel remains to be seen. A renewed diplomatic push, including security guarantees and open discussions on Israel’s nuclear arsenal, could pave the way for long-term peace and stability in a region that has long teetered on the edge of nuclear escalation.
