Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Asia-Pacific has long been a strategically important region for the United States, a top priority in foreign policy. In 2011, the Obama Administration announced the Pivot (Rebalance) strategy. equal) to Asia – Pacific with many new points showing deeper involvement in the Pacific region in general and Southeast Asia – South China Sea in particular.
Persisting with the slogan “Make America Great Again!” from the time he was running for office until he became the owner of the White House, for Donald Trump, helping America regain its inherent glory is considered his personal responsibility. Unlike the Obama era, which focused on internationalism and involved itself in many hot areas in the world to ensure the so-called “freedom and democracy” that America protects. Trump gradually retreated to isolationism, supporting “America First”, where America’s interests must be placed above the interests of its allies and even the entire region. Therefore, Trump’s viewpoint during this period emphasized ensuring freedom of navigation, maintaining America’s economic security interests in the region, and at the same time, no country has the right to violate the interests of countries in the region beyond international law. If that happens, America has the ability to immediately approach and intervene in the region.
From this, we can see a few things about Donald Trump’s approach to the South China Sea. First, the former President pursues a peaceful and stable South China Sea, a goal that comes from the desire for economic benefits rather than military struggle at sea.
Second, Trump’s attitude towards the South China Sea and regional countries including China can be viewed in two ways: (i) When he first took office, Trump was soft on issues arising in the South China Sea and supported a peaceful region including China by being willing to act as an arbitrator. (ii) During the period of increasing Sino-US confrontation tensions, the South China Sea became more turbulent with the appearance of US warships and tough US statements about the region. Looking at the future if Trump wins a second term in the context of the current extremely volatile world, Trump can develop a South China Sea legacy from the Biden administration in the direction of stabilizing and containing the regional situation, or increasing the heat by fiercely confronting China regarding the Taiwan issue.
Future US-China Competition in the South China Sea
Both China and the United States have their own ambitions. For China, the interests in the South China Sea are considered important national interests, although they do not affect the country’s survival, but they play a significant role in the three aspects of economy, military and the rear of the maritime power. During his four years in office, Mr. Trump and his cabinet have never stopped criticizing Beijing’s actions of “bullying” other countries. In the new defense deployment strategy, Washington’s maritime encirclement thinking considers the South China Sea as the center of the Indo-Pacific in the system of encircling and containing China. This has been carried over from Trump’s term to Biden’s, with each administration implementing it differently, but the long-term goal remains the same.
Therefore, if Trump is re-elected in 2024, US-China competition will still be the main situation in the South China Sea. The nature of competition will not decrease in importance, but the applied strategy will be different. The US will put more responsibility on the shoulders of regional partners, encouraging from afar to become a better approach than direct military intervention based on existing mechanisms such as QUAD, AUKUS, etc.
The Taiwan issue has long been considered the biggest obstacle in the relationship between the two leading powers, the US and China, due to the island’s geopolitical and economic position in relation to Beijing’s strategy. Taiwan is not recognized as a country and historically, the US has severed relations with Taiwan to recognize China under Mao Zedong. However, Taiwan has important value to the US – it is a strategic block, blocking China’s way to the sea. On the contrary, reclaiming and unifying Taiwan into the mainland has become the desire of any Chinese leader.
Taking advantage of the 2022 Taiwan Strait tension, Trump has made many statements on Twitter criticizing the policies of incumbent Joe Biden. In addition, Trump also made statements about how to quickly resolve hot spots that the US is concerned about such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Israel-Hamas, including the Taiwan Strait.
The Taiwan issue in 2024 will also change with the role of the new leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, Mr. Lai Ching-te, Taipei’s future development perspective will likely include peaceful coexistence with the mainland or choosing confrontation, never having “one China”, from here opening up a relatively dim vision for the South China Sea region if Mr. Trump is re-elected President of the United States because of his views on China during his term and in the new election process. China will still be the main and strongest competitor of the United States, while Taiwan will find it difficult to get out of the dilemma, quoting Business Insider’s knowledgeable Ms. Daniels: “Beijing’s real nightmare scenario is not necessarily seeing Lai Ching-te elected president of Taiwan, but a combination of Lai Ching-te and perhaps Donald Trump returning to the White House” including Mr. Trump’s old cabinet.
An unpredictable future comes from both Donald Trump himself and the world situation, but the South China Sea can still be stable in the face of the Taiwan issue because both China and the US see the benefits of opening up in the region, the important commercial role of the South China Sea route with Beijing. In early 2024, in his New Year’s message, Mr. Xi affirmed that “National reunification is a historical inevitability, compatriots on both sides join hands and heart, together enjoy the great glory of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” showing that China is now sober enough in the issue of peacefully retrieving Taiwan. However, tensions in the Yellow Sea between South Korea and North Korea have rekindled. It is very likely that the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will be the top priority if Mr. Trump is elected. This also means that concerns in the South China Sea will be reduced or the US will push responsibility, increasing the role of their allied partners in the issues in the South China Sea.
