Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Reina Lacllam
In an election defined by dissatisfaction and the longing for change, the 2024 presidential race has brought forth a curious question: Who is the incumbent? With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as the main contenders, both campaigns are furiously trying to paint the other as the embodiment of the status quo—a strategy rooted in the belief that swing voters are more likely to reject whoever they see as the “incumbent” in this cycle.
The notion of an incumbent has always played a crucial role in American politics. Yet, this year, it’s more complicated than ever. Both candidates are, in different ways, tied to the past and the present. Trump, having served as president from 2017 to 2021, is hardly a fresh face. Meanwhile, Harris, as the sitting vice president, carries the burden of the Biden administration’s successes and failures. This unusual dynamic makes the incumbent label both a powerful weapon and a potential liability.
For over two decades, voters have consistently leaned towards candidates who promise change. The 21st century has seen a series of election outcomes that reflect a nation weary of its leaders and eager for something new. Whether it was Barack Obama in 2008, Donald Trump in 2016, or Joe Biden in 2020, the winning message has often been one of breaking away from the past.
In fact, the only two national elections this century that didn’t result in a major shift in Washington power centers—2004 and 2012—serve as exceptions to this broader trend. Since 2000, the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives have all flipped partisan control multiple times, a clear indicator of the electorate’s ongoing discontent.
So, in 2024, how do voters decide who represents continuity and who represents change? Trump is attempting to position himself as the outsider, despite his previous time in office. His argument is that the country needs to return to his brand of leadership to undo the damage he claims has been inflicted by the Biden administration. However, this strategy hits a snag when considering his track record, especially the controversies and divisiveness that marked his presidency and ultimately cost him reelection.
Harris, on the other hand, faces the challenge of separating herself from Biden while also leveraging her role as his vice president. Her campaign has leaned into the idea of “turning the page” on Trump-era chaos, a message that resonates with voters tired of the turmoil that defined the last decade. Ironically, this strategy mirrors the approach Nikki Haley took during the Republican primaries, where she criticized Trump’s unpredictability and urged a return to normalcy.
But there’s a catch: Harris is still part of the current administration. While she may argue for change, she must also defend the Biden-Harris record. Voters may question how much of a departure her presidency would be from the Biden years, and whether she truly represents a new direction for the country.
The debate over who is the true incumbent in this election is likely to be a defining factor in the campaign. Trump’s team will try to link Harris as closely as possible to Biden, painting her as a continuation of the current administration. Meanwhile, Harris will continue to focus on Trump’s past, arguing that he is the embodiment of the old political order that voters have repeatedly rejected.
In the end, the candidate who wins will likely be the one who successfully convinces the electorate that they are the agent of change, not the guardian of a broken system. As we approach the first debate, this battle for the title of “real incumbent” will only intensify, setting the stage for what could be one of the most pivotal elections in recent history. The outcome will hinge on a single, simple question: Who represents the change voters are desperate for?
