Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
By Shehab Al-Makahleh
Jordan has long been a beacon of stability in a region fraught with conflict. Under King Abdullah II’s leadership since 1999, the Hashemite Kingdom has navigated a minefield of regional and internal challenges—from economic hardships to the threat of terrorism. Yet, Jordan continues to position itself as a model of moderation and resilience, seeking to transform adversity into opportunity.
Today, Jordan faces perhaps one of its most daunting challenges: the escalating Israel-Gaza conflict. The crisis has not only reignited regional tensions but also placed immense pressure on Jordan, a country already grappling with economic difficulties, high youth unemployment, and the aftershocks of the Syrian refugee crisis.
The recent war in Gaza has exacerbated existing pressures on Jordan. The conflict has led to a surge in regional instability, placing Jordan in a precarious position given its proximity to the conflict zone and its role as a key mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict has also raised concerns about a new influx of refugees into Jordan, further straining the country’s resources.
King Abdullah II has consistently called for a two-state solution, viewing it as essential for regional stability. However, the ongoing conflict has made this vision more elusive, and Jordan must now navigate a complex geopolitical landscape where alliances are shifting, and the potential for spillover violence is high.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza poses a significant threat to Jordan’s domestic stability and regional ambitions. For years, Jordan has been a pillar of moderation in a volatile region, but the recent escalation has intensified concerns about the kingdom’s ability to secure its borders and maintain internal stability. These threats, which have been brewing since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, are now more acute than ever.
Border security has always been a critical issue for Jordan. The kingdom has long grappled with challenges such as drug smuggling, particularly the trafficking of Captagon, arms smuggling, and the ever-present threat of jihadist infiltration. However, the Gaza conflict has added a new layer of complexity, exacerbating Jordan’s fears of Iranian influence and the activities of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, as well as Hezbollah forces in Syria.
Economic Strains: The Impact of Regional Conflict
Jordan is facing significant domestic challenges as the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza unfolds. The conflict threatens to bolster Hamas’s popularity within Jordan, potentially emboldening its supporters just as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in September. Compounding this is the looming threat of a new Palestinian refugee crisis at Jordan’s borders. Although Jordan has a long history of integrating Palestinian refugees, its leadership is resolute in rejecting any new waves of displacement due to the ongoing conflict. This stance is driven by mounting socio-economic and political pressures, including a struggling economy, high public debt, and a youth unemployment rate hovering around 22 percent.The war has further strained the kingdom’s economy, leading to a sharp decline in tourism—a crucial economic pillar—and a drop in foreign direct investment. These factors, coupled with growing internal discontent, present a formidable challenge for Jordan as it navigates the fallout from the Gaza conflict.
Jordan’s economy, already under significant strain from years of regional instability, is facing additional challenges due to the Israel-Gaza war. Tourism, a vital sector for Jordan, has been adversely affected as regional tensions deter visitors. The influx of refugees from Gaza, on top of the hundreds of thousands who have fled the Syrian civil war, puts further pressure on Jordan’s already limited resources.
The Kingdom’s economic woes are compounded by its dependence on foreign aid, which is often tied to the regional security situation. As international focus shifts to the Israel-Gaza conflict, there is a risk that Jordan may receive less attention and support, making it more difficult for the government to implement necessary economic reforms and social initiatives.
For Jordan’s leadership, these security measures are not about taking sides in the Israeli-Iranian conflict but about safeguarding the kingdom’s sovereignty. The missile and drone intercepts were necessary actions to neutralize threats to Jordan’s airspace and to ensure the safety of its citizens. Yet, the fallout from these events has exposed the fragility of Jordan’s internal cohesion, revealing how external conflicts are reverberating within the kingdom’s borders.
Jordan now finds itself in a precarious position, balancing the need to maintain strong diplomatic ties with its Western allies and neighboring states while also addressing the growing domestic discontent fueled by these regional tensions. The Gaza war, coupled with the broader Israeli-Iranian confrontation, has placed Jordan at a crossroads. How it navigates these challenges will not only determine its future security but also its role as a stabilizing force in the Middle East.
Turning Adversity into Opportunity
Despite these challenges, Jordan continues to seek opportunities within the crisis. The Kingdom has intensified its diplomatic efforts, aiming to play a pivotal role in mediating between conflicting parties and advocating for a peaceful resolution. Jordan’s leadership has also been proactive in seeking international support to address the humanitarian fallout from the Gaza conflict, emphasizing the need for a coordinated response to prevent further destabilization of the region.
Domestically, the government is focusing on economic diversification and reforms aimed at reducing youth unemployment and improving living standards. King Abdullah II has been vocal about the need to empower civil society and promote political participation, seeing these as essential steps toward building a more resilient and prosperous nation.
A Path Forward
As Jordan navigates the complexities of the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Kingdom’s ability to turn challenges into opportunities will be critical. King Abdullah II’s leadership, marked by pragmatism and a commitment to moderation, has positioned Jordan as a stabilizing force in the Middle East. However, the road ahead is fraught with difficulties, and Jordan must continue to adapt to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
In the face of adversity, Jordan’s resilience will be tested. Yet, with a strategic approach that balances diplomacy, economic reform, and social cohesion, the Hashemite Kingdom has the potential to not only weather the storm but emerge stronger as a model for peace and stability in the region. The kingdom’s ability to protect its borders, manage its internal dissent, and maintain regional diplomacy will be critical in the coming months. The stakes are high, and the risks are real, but with strategic foresight and a commitment to national unity, Jordan can continue to weather the storm, emerging as a resilient and steadfast player in a region rife with uncertainty.
