Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Lisa Smith Al Makahleh
As Iran’s newly elected president, Masood Pezeshkian faces the formidable challenge of reviving the nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Pezeshkian, a reformist with a background in medicine and a history of public service, has signaled his intent to return to the negotiating table. His appointment of seasoned diplomat and former Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif, who was instrumental in the original 2015 deal, suggests that he is serious about pursuing this goal. However, several internal and external obstacles stand in the way.
Pezeshkian’s first hurdle is domestic opposition. Iran’s conservative-dominated parliament, which has shown little interest in rekindling the nuclear deal, is likely to resist any efforts to engage with the West. Moreover, the powerful security establishment, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, holds significant sway over the country’s foreign policy. Even if Pezeshkian has the will to push forward, he may find his hands tied by the hardliners within Iran’s political and military elite.
Externally, the potential re-election of Donald Trump poses a significant threat to any progress Pezeshkian might make. Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and the reimposition of sanctions on Iran undid years of diplomatic work and led to a dramatic escalation in tensions. Should Trump return to office, the likelihood of renegotiating or restoring the deal would be slim.
Pezeshkian’s candidacy and potential presidency have garnered limited international response, with European leaders cautiously optimistic but noncommittal. The European Union has expressed a willingness to engage, but the U.S. remains skeptical. With the American elections looming and the current administration entangled in other global conflicts, such as the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a major shift in U.S. policy toward Iran seems unlikely in the near future.
Despite these challenges, Pezeshkian has made it clear that he views Iran’s isolation as unsustainable. His campaign focused on the need to lift sanctions and improve Iran’s economic conditions by engaging with the West. He also criticized the government’s handling of domestic protests, signaling a desire for change in both domestic and foreign policy.
The 2015 nuclear deal required Iran to significantly curtail its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, since Trump’s withdrawal, Iran has ramped up its uranium enrichment, bringing it closer to weapons-grade levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran now has enough fissile material to potentially build a nuclear weapon—a development that has alarmed neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has hinted at pursuing its own nuclear capabilities in response.
The potential re-election of Trump complicates matters further. If he returns to the White House, Pezeshkian’s efforts to revive the JCPOA could be dead on arrival. The responsibility for keeping the deal alive would then fall to European powers and other international stakeholders, who would need to mediate between the U.S. and Iran to bridge the trust deficit that has only grown wider in recent years.
Pezeshkian’s tenure as president, which is set to begin within 30 days, will require careful navigation of these complex dynamics. He must first secure the support of Iran’s supreme leader and manage the conservative opposition at home. Externally, he will need to engage with a West that is increasingly divided and distracted by other global crises. While the road ahead is fraught with difficulties, the possibility of reviving the nuclear deal cannot be entirely ruled out. Success will require diplomatic finesse, strategic patience, and a willingness on all sides to compromise.
The future of the JCPOA, and by extension, the stability of the Middle East, hangs in the balance as Pezeshkian prepares to take office. Whether he can overcome these obstacles and deliver on his promise to re-engage with the West remains to be seen. However, as the saying goes, “It takes two to tango,” and the success of any future negotiations will depend as much on the actions of the West as on those of Iran.
