Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Dr. Shehab Al-Makahleh
The ominous drumbeats of war are resounding across the Middle East, as the specter of a regional escalation looms ever larger. Recent developments in Tel Aviv and Washington have made it increasingly evident, albeit through veiled channels, that the allied fronts of Gaza—comprising Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen—are on the brink of unleashing their vowed retaliations against Israeli incursions. The conviction in these impending strikes is so unshakeable that it leaves little room for alternative scenarios. This imminent threat has spurred Israel, alongside its regional partners and powerful Western allies, to exert unprecedented pressure in a bid to forestall these retaliations from igniting an all-out war. The strategies at play—both coercive and tempting—are complex, involving intricate layers of diplomatic maneuvering, military posturing, and economic inducements that reach far beyond Tel Aviv, implicating Washington and its global coalition.
Israel’s blueprint for responding to any retaliatory actions by the axis of resistance is already set in stone, with the scale of civilian casualties being the pivotal factor that will determine the nature, scope, and ferocity of its countermeasures. Israeli intelligence leaks, strategic analyses, and media assessments consistently emphasize a crucial point: the Israeli state will not, under any circumstances, “tolerate” civilian casualties as a result of the anticipated retaliations.
In light of the unavoidable retaliations, Israel is scrambling to shape the contours of these responses—not to prevent them, as that ship has sailed, but to contain their impact. Tel Aviv has issued stark warnings that any response deemed “unreasonable” in terms of civilian casualties will be met with a disproportionately devastating retaliation. Despite these stern warnings, Israeli decision-makers anticipate that the retaliations will likely be concentrated in the northern and central regions, targeting military installations and assets rather than densely populated civilian zones.
Yet, Israel’s strategy also involves a deliberate campaign of disinformation aimed at sowing confusion among its adversaries—a tactic it has deployed effectively in past confrontations, particularly in Lebanon. The irony, however, is that Israel’s foes are adept at calibrating their responses with precision, ensuring they are both proportionate and strategically effective, while minimizing collateral damage. These retaliatory strikes are not just acts of retribution; they are calculated moves to restore deterrence.
Amid this escalating tension, there has been a sudden and somewhat surprising resurgence of diplomatic efforts to negotiate a prisoner exchange deal and secure a ceasefire in Gaza. Mediators, who had previously been pessimistic, are now cautiously optimistic about the prospects of reaching an agreement. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be approaching these negotiations with a newfound seriousness, sending delegations to iron out the remaining details.
Israel hopes that by rekindling these negotiations and coupling them with a dose of optimistic rhetoric, it can temper the resolve of the axis of resistance. However, Israel is not under any illusions. It vividly recalls Iran’s response last April, following the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This time, Israel is banking on two layers of defense: its own military capabilities, which, though formidable, may still be insufficient to fully repel the anticipated retaliations, and the defensive support of its Arab allies, who are expected to step in to bolster Israel’s defenses. Nonetheless, Israel remains conspicuously silent about these partnerships, mindful of not exposing its Arab allies to domestic backlash. The ultimate bulwark, as always, is unwavering American military support, with the U.S. presence in the region serving as a crucial deterrent.
Despite these preparations, there are significant variables that undermine Israel’s confidence. The risk of uncontrolled escalation is real, and the Iranian response, while measured, is expected to be more potent and damaging than the strike last April. Hezbollah’s proximity and formidable arsenal of precision-guided munitions pose a particularly acute threat, as they can overwhelm Israeli defenses and inflict significant damage. Furthermore, the possibility of a coordinated multi-front retaliation—from Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and potentially Iraq—stretches Israel’s defensive capabilities thin, raising critical questions about its ability to effectively counter such a broad and multifaceted threat.
In conclusion, the coming days will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of the conflict in Gaza and the broader region. The interconnectedness of these fronts raises the stakes to an unprecedented level: will we witness a contained escalation, characterized by a controlled exchange of hostilities, or will the situation spiral out of control, leading to a catastrophic regional war?
Israel’s reliance on a combination of pressure, inducements, and deterrence is a high-stakes gamble. The outcomes of this strategy will not only shape Israel’s future but will also have profound implications for the stability of the entire Middle East. As the region teeters on the brink of a potential conflagration, the decisions made in the coming days will resonate far beyond the immediate conflict, potentially setting the stage for a new and volatile chapter in the region’s history.
