How Iran Could Make Israel’s Nightmare a Reality

Micha Stevenson

The Islamic Republic of Iran has long sought to undermine Israel and project its influence across the Middle East. Now, Tehran may have identified Jerusalem’s Achilles heel – and the consequences could be catastrophic.
Iran is keenly aware that the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel’s tense relationship with Hezbollah to the north represent significant vulnerabilities. By applying military pressure to these regions, Iran calculates it can create an unmanageable situation for the Israeli Defense Forces. An attack that disrupts transportation and communication between northern and southern Israel could prove crippling, wreaking havoc on the Jewish state’s logistics and security.
Moreover, Iran is betting that unrest in the West Bank, combined with the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and with Hezbollah, could create a perfect storm – one that allows Hamas and other factions to connect and overwhelm the Israelis. Such a scenario would not only sow chaos within Israel but also jeopardize Jerusalem’s standing with its vital American ally.
To be clear, Iran is under no illusions about the power asymmetry between itself and the formidable Israeli-American partnership. Any reckless use of proxies could provoke a devastating response that imperils the network Tehran has spent four decades cultivating. This could harm not only Iran, but also its key international backers, China and Russia, who have their own interests in the region.
Russian National Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu’s sudden visit to Tehran may be a sign that even Moscow is concerned about the potential for spiraling conflict. After all, continued instability in the Red Sea could increase the cost of trade for China, which has already expressed frustration with Iran.
Ultimately, Iran’s calculus is a risky one. While harassing Israel through its proxies may provide short-term satisfaction, it carries the very real danger of provoking a massive retaliation that could devastate Iran’s regional ambitions. As the Islamic Republic weighs its next move, it must tread carefully – lest it unwittingly trigger the nightmare scenario it has long sought to engineer.