Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Lisa Smith Al-Makahleh
The decisions made in the coming weeks of the French general election will not only determine the direction of France’s governance but also resonate deeply within the broader European and global contexts.
The 2024 French legislative elections have become a pivotal moment for the future of the country. President Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected call for snap parliamentary elections, made without wide consultation, has inadvertently boosted the political influence of the far-right.
The far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen is on track to score an unprecedented number of parliamentary seats in the July 7 runoff, after securing 29.24% of the vote in the first round. This comes as a blow to Macron’s centrist alliance, which finished a distant third with only 20% of the vote.
The decline of traditional centrist parties has long been underway in France, with a noticeable shift in voter preferences away from the political establishment. Macron’s own administration has been criticized for normalizing far-right rhetoric and policies, from his participation in interviews with far-right media to the appointment of controversial figures like Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin.
Internationally, the primary beneficiaries of the far-right’s triumph appear to be Russia and Israel. Marine Le Pen has long been associated with the Kremlin, having received generous campaign loans from Moscow-linked banks. Meanwhile, the National Rally has undergone a notable transformation, shifting from its historical antisemitism to a more pro-Israel stance in a bid to rebrand and broaden its appeal.
However, the French far-right’s rise has also spurred unexpected pushback. The newly formed left-wing coalition, known as the New Popular Front, brings together socialists, greens, and communists in a last-ditch effort to prevent governance by a far-right administration. Should the National Rally secure a majority in the National Assembly, Macron could potentially face power-sharing with the first far-right government in France since the Vichy regime.
As France braces for the runoff elections, the nation stands at a pivotal moment in its political history. The convergence of shifting voter preferences, strategic alliances, and ideological transformations underscores the high stakes facing French democracy. Whether the rise of the far-right will reshape the political landscape or galvanize opposition into a formidable force remains to be seen. The decisions made in the coming weeks will not only determine the direction of France’s governance but also resonate deeply within the broader European and global contexts.
