Could the Biden-Trump Debate Actually Be a Game Changer?

Despite the incredibly high stakes of the 2024 presidential election, polling on Joe Biden versus Donald Trump has been exceptionally stable and apathy seems to be the prevailing mood among undecided voters. Among political journalists there is, understandably, a longing for game-changing events that will give this rematch a clearer narrative and a more certain outcome. So some are hyping the earliest presidential general-election debate in history as the moment we’ve all been anticipating, as this Associated Press preview reflects:

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Both men have glaring flaws that present their opponent with tremendous opportunity and risk. They will face a huge national audience that will include many people tuning into their 2020 rematch for the first time and who won’t see another debate until September, magnifying each success or mistake.

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This expectation flows, in part, from the belief that the Biden campaign must be getting desperate. Otherwise why would Biden gamble on such an early debate? (The incumbent’s camp clearly pitched the unusual event, forcing Trump to put up or shut up after his incessant claims that Biden was afraid to debate him.) Indeed, it’s become an article of faith in some precincts of the MAGA fever swamps that Democrats want to see if Biden will implode or survive on the debate stage before they make the fateful decision as to whether he will be asked to “step aside” (pro tip: This isn’t happening).