What’s Next for Israel?

The resignation of the National Unity party leader, Benny Gantz, who joined the war cabinet, should not come as a surprise.

Trying to hold on

Following Gantz’s departure, Benjamin Netanyahu will have to choose one of two options. His first option is to hold onto his current government and continue to execute the war to realize his goals, which are illusionary at best.

Netanyahu will not be able to eradicate Hamas, even if he succeeds in destroying its military capabilities and preventing it from reconstituting itself in Gaza. Hamas will remain ideologically committed and politically viable, with the ability to terrorize Israel both in Gaza and the West Bank.

Moreover, Israel will be stuck in Gaza with unimaginable security and administrative hazards, a nightmare that will make the violence resulting from the occupation of the West Bank feel like a walk in the park.

New elections?

Netanyahu’s other options are to call for new elections or dissolve his current government and establish a new one that supports Biden’s general peace plan.

Netanyahu does not want to hold new elections because, based on repeated polls, he knows there is no chance he will be able to form a new government as his Likud party will decisively lose its relative majority.

Forming a new coalition

Given his untenable situation, Netanyahu’s preferred option should be to dissolve his current government and form a new coalition.

The new coalition government, still led by Netanyahu, would include Likud with 32 mandates, Lapid’s Yesh Atid (24), Deri’s Shas (11), Gantz’s National Unity (8), Sa’ar’s New Hope (4) and Labor (4).

This coalition will have an overwhelming majority of 83 mandates in the Israeli Knesset. Potentially, Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, with six mandates, could also join.

Although a couple of leaders, especially Lapid’s Yesh Atid, have sworn never to sit in a government with Netanyahu at the helm, they may, nevertheless, join such a new government in this hour of unprecedented national crisis.

The precondition would be that Netanyahu offers a clear roadmap about the “Day After” that must preclude continuing military and administrative control over Gaza while seeking a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Biden’s peace plan

Here is where Biden’s peace plan comes into play. The first phase of Biden’s peace plan that calls for a six-week ceasefire to allow for the inflow of massive humanitarian assistance desperately needed to prevent a humanitarian crisis from becoming catastrophic, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas, return of Palestinian civilians to their homes and the release of several hostages.

Whereas such a first phase is crucial, Biden’s second phase needs to be refined and lead to the creation of the conditions necessary to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

However, Biden’s call on Israel and Hamas to “negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities,” has a fundamental problem.

It leaves the central part of negotiating a permanent ceasefire subject to, as Biden stated, “a number of details to negotiate” because “Israel will want to make sure its interests are protected.”

The big problem with Biden’s peace plan

Here is where the main problem lies: How can Israel make sure that Hamas no longer poses an existential threat? Prior to ironing out the details, this would have to be based on the assumption that Hamas lives up to its commitments.

Biden added that “if Hamas fails to fulfil its commitments under the deal, Israel can resume military operations. But Egypt and Qatar have assured me and they are continuing to work to ensure that Hamas doesn’t do that.” But is there any real weight to Egypt’s and Qatar’s assurances?

The role of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar

In my view, “phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities,” must include negotiations about putting an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed, for Israel to “make sure its interests are protected,” it must translate to Hamas not being able to reconstitute itself in Gaza, or Hamas finally coming to its senses and swallowing the bitter pill of Israel’s irrevocable reality.

During these negotiations, Hamas must agree to renounce the use of violence to achieve its political goals, and agree to a two-state solution. Hamas can, in fact, claim victory by forcing Israel’s hand by agreeing to a two-state solution.

Turkey and Qatar, who have a special relationship with Hamas, can help bring the group to this realization. Having seen the indescribable death and destruction inflicted on Gaza, will Hamas come to its senses?

Hamas as a political reality

Over time, yes. And the same goes for Israel. As stated above, Hamas, as a political nationalist movement, is a reality that Israel will have to come to terms with even if Hamas is militarily devastated.

Hamas’ attack and Israel’s retaliation have created a new paradigm: It is impossible to restore the status quo that existed before October 7, 2023. The two-state solution has come back, which Biden has reiterated time and again.

The two sides need to negotiate a permanent ceasefire in the context of a permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace. No one can overstate the difficulties that the negotiations over a two-state solution would entail.

But then, no one can convince any rational person that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can end unless the Palestinians realize their state.

Integrating Israel in the region

I fully agree with Biden’s assertion in his peace proposal that “With this deal, Israel could become more deeply integrated into the region, including — it’s no surprise to you all — including a potential historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Israel could be part of a regional security network to counter the threat posed by Iran.”

All of this would create the conditions for a different future and a better future for the Palestinian people, one of self-determination, dignity, security and freedom. This path is available once the deal is struck.

Conclusion

Israel can come out of this ugly war better, stronger, and at peace, or weaker, constantly threatened, on the defensive and loathed by the community of nations.

Netanyahu can rise to the occasion and spare Israel the agony of political defeat, or leave the political scene in utter disgrace and be remembered as the Prime Minister who drove Israel toward the abyss.