What to expect from a more right-wing European Parliament

Forget all the committee negotiations and knife-edge votes to come: The opening weeks of the new European Parliament is when it has maximum leverage to shape the direction of EU policy.

That’s because once the results of the election start to trickle in on June 9, minds will turn to an all-important vote on the next European Commission president. And that’s when the most powerful political groups, such as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) or the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D), will make their demands about what should be in the Commission’s crib sheet for the next five years.

In 2019, this backroom horsetrading resulted in the Green Deal. In 2024, new questions are facing MEPs. Should the bloc double down on the Green Deal or repackage it as a green-hued industrial strategy? Should the bloc move away from its roots as a peace project and pool debt to fund a big splurge on defense? How far should the Commission go to protect the clean tech industry from unfair foreign competition?

Polls suggest that the new center of gravity in the European Parliament will be in the EPP — a rightward shift in which the liberals will no longer be able to have the casting votes and the hard-right European Conservative and Reformists (ECR) party may hold more cards.

If the current centrist majorities needed to pass legislation get slimmer, the Parliament will garner more attention than it has since 2019 because close-run votes mean things get political. We got a sense of things to come when the EPP narrowly failed to muster a right-wing blocking majority to kill off a nature restoration law last year.

But Parliament’s influence is likely to be constrained by the European Council, made up of national leaders, which officially sets the Commission’s political direction. Three of the most influential countries in the bloc — France, Germany and Spain — are currently led by socialists or liberals, checking the EPP’s power and ensuring that the EU’s complex latticework of dealmaking is likely to continue.

Agriculture

The recent wave of farmers’ protests has put agriculture high on the political agenda, starting a battle over who cares more about farmers ahead of the EU election. Will that attention remain once the Parliament seats are allocated? That’s to be seen. One thing is sure, the new set of lawmakers entering the agriculture committee will have a lot to deal with — from the EU’s farm policy reform to addressing the role of agriculture in the climate crisis while keeping farmers afloat.

But a Parliament brimming with more conservative and far-right groups — which have been pitching farmers against Green Deal policies — will certainly make it harder for the Commission to deliver ambitious legislation, such as the promised revamp of outdated animal welfare rules, a new law on sustainable food systems, or efforts to curb agricultural emissions.

Defense

EU leaders agree on the need to boost defense spending. But there are two open questions: 1) Where to get the money? and 2) Just how far should countries cooperate on defense projects?The election will decide what shape this push will take. For the left, defense is not natural territory for further spending, since it could also imply cuts to the welfare state. On the right wing, nationalists are divided: Members of the far-right Identity and Democracy Group have said no to more defense integration, while the ECR is so in favor that the group co-chair Nicola Procaccini has advocated for an EU army. In the middle, the Commission’s current — and likely future — President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) is putting defense at the top of her agenda, pushing for a Defense Commissioner and an EU air defense shield.

Then there’s timing. Diplomats are convinced it’s a matter of when, not if, EU defense integration will happen. External events, like the U.S. pulling out from NATO because of a re-elected Donald Trump, could make it quick. Otherwise, it’s likely to enter into the EU machine and take much longer.

Climate

The European Parliament plays a major role in shaping the bloc’s response to climate change, and the upcoming term will be no exception. The outgoing set of lawmakers put in place policies to reduce the EU’s contribution to global warming during this decade. The new crop of MEPs — and commissioners — will decide on targets and measures for after 2030 to ensure the bloc becomes climate neutral by 2050.

Top of their to-do list is setting a goal for slashing planet-warming emissions by 2040, and they face the thorny question of how to reduce the EU’s stubbornly stagnant agricultural pollution. There are also growing calls for Brussels to get involved in preparing countries for mounting climate disasters and other effects of global warming. The composition of the next Parliament determines how ambitious those efforts will be — and whether already passed Green Deal legislation will come under attack. Conservatives are clamoring for less stringent environmental rules for farmers, for example, and want to scrap the bloc’s 2035 combustion-engine phaseout.

Energy

With the Continent still recovering from the fuel crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, driving up prices and pushing voters into the arms of populist politicians, energy is one of the most sensitive issues in this election. But the next Commission will have to juggle the issue of keeping costs down at the same time as also rolling out a historic expansion in clean energy.

Despite faster-than-expected progress in deploying renewables across the EU, the European clean tech industry is taking a battering at the hands of competitors like China and the U.S., sparking fears for jobs and security of supply. Solar power has been worst affected and was denied a major bailout by the Commission just weeks ago. Now, other sectors like wind and hydrogen are watching closely for any sign the bloc’s policymakers are becoming less committed to the green transition.

Tech

Incoming lawmakers will face the tough job of ensuring that a slew of flagship bills passed in the last five years — rules to curb content online and set guardrails for artificial intelligence — are properly applied by the European Commission, now effectively a super-regulator for Big Tech. The anticipated surge in the number of far-right MEPs, including free speech and nationalist hard-liners, might push back.

The European Parliament’s rightward shift may favor a trend for bigger, homegrown tech and telecoms champions and for less red tape to unlock the bloc’s potential as an innovation powerhouse. Conflicts could emerge over an EU push to reduce dependency on other parts of the world, a huge issue for tech where many providers come from the U.S. and many devices and components are made in Asia.

Trade

Whether the EU should seal its trade deal with the South American bloc of Mercosur countries — and other big bilateral trade accords — will remain one of the hottest issues of the coming term. MEPs often have limited say on EU trade policy, which falls under the remit of the European Commission, but they can still slow ratification of trade deals. If Parliament shifts to the right, the agreement might face greater opposition due to far-right pushback — although the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) group is generally in favor.

A more right-leaning Parliament is also likely to question the EU’s wide array of rules in pursuit of climate neutrality, such as those on deforestation-free supply chains, which opponents argue rile potential trade partners. Taking office amid deepening geopolitical rivalry, the next Parliament will have a say on just how tough Brussels will get on Beijing, and how it will deal with a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House.

Sustainability

After five years of European Green Deal legislative bonanza, the next mandate will be dominated by implementing a lot of the EU’s new rules to boost the circular economy, curb air pollution, slash packaging waste, rein in greenwashing and make products more sustainable. How ambitious this implementation will be and whether Brussels will even roll back some of those measures are central questions of the June election and will be influenced by the composition of the new Parliament.

The recent backlash against the EU’s green policies has led to uncertainty over whether incoming lawmakers will take on some the unfinished business on the restoration of natural ecosystems, chemical pollution or forest resilience. New sustainability concerns are emerging across the bloc, notably around the long-lasting and widespread pollution of the so-called “forever chemicals,” or PFAS, and Brussels is under increased pressure to address this issue after it dragged its feet to revise the bloc’s framework chemicals regulation REACH.

Health

A tidal wave of EU solidarity during the Covid-19 pandemic — from buying vaccines to disease surveillance and data sharing — produced a surge of new EU health legislation, massively expanding Europe’s health budget, mandate and ambition. The question is whether that momentum will continue under a new, more right-leaning Parliament.

Most people in the Brussels health bubble are bracing for a pretty dramatic budget haircut, largely because the pandemic is over. But more nationalist voices in the European Parliament could also drag the competency back out of Brussels and return it to the capitals, meaning the Health Union ambition of outgoing Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides becomes a fleeting blip. But with many lawmakers coming from countries with struggling health systems and poor access to medicines, the lure of solving these problems at a European level could outweigh party politics.

Mobility

Candidates are challenging several EU mobility-centric policies on the campaign trail in the lead-up to the June election, signaling what a shift to the right will mean for the transport sector. The hottest topic is the ban on the sale of new gas or diesel cars from 2035, along with stricter rules on truck emissions — with the possibility that a more “technology-neutral” approach to internal combustion engines could find its way into EU legislation.

The aviation sector is also waiting to see if the net-zero air travel ambition will be confirmed after the EU election, with sustainable aviation fuel mandates still at the heart of the debate, along with the competitiveness of European airlines in a global perspective. Finally, the freight sector is preparing for the next legislative period with an eye on policies aimed at reducing emissions from trucks and shipping, but also on the labor shortage affecting companies and the geopolitical context that is particularly relevant to this area.

Finance

MEPs are spoilt for choice over which warnings to issue over the challenges Europe faces: The economic powerhouses of the U.S. and China are outpacing the EU; Europe’s lack of military cohesion is inviting Russia to move beyond Ukraine; and the heavy price of combatting climate change is looming. But where’s the money going to come from to finance the policies needed to overcome them?

That’s what voters will have to decide at the ballot box. The left says pooling debt at EU level is the answer. The right, meanwhile, is calling for belt-tightening to bring down the debt EU capitals took on to cushion the economic impact of the pandemic. The compromise will likely lie in the EU’s next seven-year budget, which will be set in the course of the next Parliament. Voters must choose between MEPs who call on governments to contribute more to the cash pot and those who demand more EU taxes to finance ambitious policies out of Brussels.