Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Iran has made good on its threat to retaliate against a deadly strike on its consulate in Syria with a large aerial strike against Israel on Saturday.
The drone and missile strikes could spark a major escalation of fighting in the Middle East amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Here are some details about the attack and the response by Israel’s allies.
How big of an attack was this?
For weeks, Iranian leaders have vowed they would avenge the deaths of two top Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders who were killed in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on Apr. 1.
Israeli officials said Saturday they had confirmed more than 100 drones had left Tehran and were heading towards Israel. Iranian state media reported that Tehran launched ballistic missiles and drones against targets in Israel.
It is important to know that these attacks, unlike others in the past, are explicitly and directly coming from the Iranian government and its military. Iranian-backed proxies, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Hamas, have sparred with Israeli forces on and off for years, and Hezbollah has regularly fired rockets at Israeli targets since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October.
Iranian-backed proxies, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Hezbollah, have launched their own coinciding strikes at Israel.
When are Iranian drones arriving in Israel?
Israel announced that it had detected the drone launches around 4 p.m. EST Saturday, noting that they would take hours to arrive.
Social media reports and videos reviewed by POLITICO indicate that Iranian drones had already begun entering Israeli airspace and encountering Israel’s air defenses by 6 p.m. EST.
Iran said around 6 p.m. EST that it concluded its military action, according to an X post from Tehran’s mission to the United Nations.
Can Israel shoot down these drones and missiles?
At its disposal, Israel has the Iron Dome, an air defense system that, per its developers, has managed to intercept more than 90 percent of incoming missiles since it came into service in 2011. The system, co-manufactured by RTX and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, detects an incoming attack and can fire a Tamir counter missile to intercept a strike
Ten Iron Dome batteries are scattered throughout Israel to protect the country. Each battery is composed of three to four launchers, 20 Tamir missiles and a radar. The U.S. has allocated more than three billion dollars over the years to support the maintenance and development of the air defense system, according to the Congressional Research Service.
IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Israel had a plan in place to intercept the drones. Israeli officials had begun preparing earlier in the day for an attack, canceling civilian activities and summoning government officials back to Israel. The Israel Defense Forces have also been on high alert all day, monitoring all possible targets and readying naval and air assets. Israel’s war cabinet is also meeting tonight.
The IDF said in a post on X that it “successfully intercepted using the ‘Arrow’ system and, together with the strategic partner countries, most of the launches before they crossed the territory of the country.”
Do we have any sense of specific targets?
Officials have warned citizens across the nation about strikes. However, the IDF had specifically ordered residents in the Golan Heights, as well as the southern towns of Nevatim and Dimona and the Red Sea resort of Eilat “to stay near protective spaces until further notice.” Dimona is home to Israel’s main nuclear facility. Nevatim has a major air base. The Golan Heights are near the border with Lebanon and Syria.
What kind of missiles and drones does Iran have?
Despite pressure from U.S. sanctions, Iran has an extensive array of weapons at its disposal. Those weapons include “increasingly precise solid-propellant and road-mobile short-range ballistic missiles” and some types of medium-range ballistic missiles. Iran also has extensive drone stocks and a litany of available liquid-propellant missiles borne out of collaborations with North Korea and other allies.
How is the White House responding?
The White House is stressing its support for the Israeli government. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement that “President Biden has been clear: our support for Israel’s security is ironclad. The United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these threats from Iran.
The U.S. has also downed some of the incoming drones. A U.S. military official, granted anonymity to discuss the U.S. response, said, “U.S. forces in the region continue to shoot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel. Our forces remain postured to provide additional defensive support and to protect U.S. forces operating in the region.”
Biden has returned to Washington from Delaware and is expected to meet tonight in the Situation Room with members of the National Security Council, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C. Q. Brown, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, CIA Director Bill Burns and Vice President Kamala Harris.
The White House also stated that Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the strikes.
Is Iran planning on attacking American troops in the Middle East?
While Iran has threatened the U.S. to stay out of its ongoing spats with Israel, and while Iran and its proxies have previously attacked U.S. military bases and installations in Iraq and Syria during moments of serious tension, U.S. officials are not expecting that Iran will target American troops at this time.
A U.S. official, granted anonymity to speak freely about assessments of the incoming strike, said that “indications are they’re not going to come after us,” adding “they are very focused on Israel.”
What does this mean for U.S. support for Israel?
Some Republicans are ratcheting up pressure on the Biden administration to increase its support of Israel in the wake of the attack. Sen. Roger Wicker(R-Miss.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee said in a statement, “This is the moment for the United States to show we stand together with our allies.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said in a statement that “the House will move from its previously announced legislative schedule next week to instead consider legislation that supports our ally Israel and holds Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable.”
How are Israel’s other allies reacting?
Neighboring Jordan and Lebanon have closed its airspace ahead of the attack. Jordan has threatened to shoot down Iranian drones that transit through its airspace. Several countries, including the United Kingdom and France, have also voiced their condemnation of Iran’s attack.
In a post on X, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said that “Additional @RoyalAirForce jets and air refueling tankers have deployed to the Middle East to bolster Op Shader, the UK’s existing counter-Daesh operation in Iraq & Syria.”
