Is Trump Really on Track To Win 20% of the Black Vote?

Wednesday on the RealClearPolitics radio show (Monday through Friday at 6:00 p.m. EDT on SiriusXM’s P.O.T.U.S. Channel 124), RCP elections analyst Sean Trende discusses his new piece asking whether Donald Trump is really on track to win the highest proportion of black voters for any Republican since Nixon: Will Black Voters Back Republicans? A Political Science Perspective

“One of the big questions out there right now is are these outlandish numbers we’re seeing for Donald Trump and Republicans this time real? Are they going to stand the test of time when we get to election day? Is Donald Trump really going to win 20% of the black vote? That would be astonishing, it would be the largest share of black votes for Republicans since Nixon in 1960,” Trende said.

“If Trump wins 20% of the black vote, the election is pretty much over,” he said. “It’s an open question whether what we’re seeing right now is real.”

He cites “Steadfast Democrats: How Social Forces Shape Black Political Behavior” by Ismail White and Chryl Laird, which asks: “Why even though a third of black voters identify as conservative, do you still see 90% Democratic voting? In other words, voting against their ideological self-interest.”

“What they settle on is this idea that it is because we’re still so segregated… it becomes possible through pressure and transmission of ideas to basically shame people into not voting for the Republican Party, enforcing a norm of Democratic voting behavior,” he explains.