Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Republican presidential candidates often warn that America is declining, and that only they can stop its demise. Former President Donald Trump believes that the national decline halted during his term in office and will stop again when he is reelected.
But five unmistakable signs of American decline have been gathering momentum for decades, through both Republican and Democratic administrations. No president or party can solve these chronically intertwined, deep-rooted, systemic economic, political, societal and cultural problems. Officials can only manage the decline and mitigate the impact.
1. Uncontrollable U.S. Debt: The U.S. Debt Clock displays the inevitability of American decline — a “ticking time bomb” of data and financial evidence — especially the following three.
The U.S. government’s total unfunded liabilities — the combined amount of payments promised without funds to recipients of Social Security, Medicare, federal employee pensions, veterans’ benefits and federal debt held by the public — stand at $212 trillion, and are rapidly increasing. For context, that number was just $122 trillion as recently as 2019 and is projected by the Debt Clock to reach $288.9 trillion by 2028.
That is an unimaginable amount of money — more than a quarter of a quadrillion dollars. When or if the government is forced to reduce payments, pensions or services to hold things together, or to default on its debt, the consequences will be brutal.
The second ticking bomb is the U.S. debt. At $34 trillion, it has increased more than six-fold from $5.6 trillion in 2000. Of that $34 trillion, $731 billion has been accumulated through interest payments — the fourth-highest annual U.S. budget item. (If you are keeping score, the third-highest is $851 billion for Defense, exceeded by Social Security at $1.39 trillion and topped by Medicare-Medicaid at $1.72 trillion.)
Like an irresponsible credit card user, the federal government is perpetually borrowing more money to make the interest payments as they come due. And the interest payments on the newly refinanced debt will be much higher due to recent and significant rate-hikes.
Finally, the $34 trillion national debt, as a percentage of the nation’s $27.8 trillion economy entails a debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.30 percent, headed to 150 percent by 2028. That’s up from 56 percent in 2000 and 36 percent in 1980. Don’t expect any meaningful discussions or solutions from either party about these three “bombs” as their timers tick away.
2. Low student achievement: If our nation is to dig itself out of that harrowing debt trap, it will need successive generations of superstar students, armed with skills and creativity. Someday, they will invent and harness technologies to manufacture state-of-the-art products and related services, fueling an economic boom that boosts the GDP.
Unfortunately, the “Nation’s Report Card” does not hint at such an optimistic future. The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a congressionally mandated Education Department program that has assessed students since 1969, finds that the only 29 percent of fourth graders and 20 percent of eighth graders are even proficient in math. Only 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, are “advanced” at those levels.
Overall achievement had decreased in both reading and math compared to the already-disappointing numbers of 2019. So both before and after COVID, our education system appears to be losing the fight against national decline.
3. Increasing income and wealth inequality: Sub-par educational achievement will probably only increase the gap between the rich and poor. Moreover, it will shrink the once-vibrant middle class — the pride of post-war America.
Pew Research, conflating the ideas of “middle class” and “middle income,” recently found this vital group to have shrunk from 61 percent of households in 1971 to just 50 percent in 2021. Although a net increase in upper-income households accounted for most of this net decline of the middle class, the latter are still bringing in a disproportionately reduced percentage of the nation’s total income — down from 62 percent in 1971 to just 42 percent in 2021.
A clearer warning sign is the decrease in homeownership, long a benchmark of middle-class status, financial stability, and wealth-building. That is another reason the gap between rich and poor could keep widening as the government spends extra billions to fight poverty, contributing further to out-of-control debt and inevitable national decline.
4. Loss of American identity and patriotism: The once-great American “melting pot” is an outdated concept for many Americans. Traditionally, immigrants with different languages and cultures assimilated and became distinctly American. The current trend is toward a heterogeneous culture.
Meanwhile, among non-white youth, adopting an American identity and even saluting the flag is considered “nationalistic,” representing an “old America” — predominately white, Christian, and inherently unequal.
Patriotism has declined, especially among more ethnically diverse 18 to 34-year-olds. That brings us to our rapidly changing population. No modern nation has ever experienced such dramatic demographic change, and already-increasing racial tensions could vastly accelerate, hastening national decline.
5. Widespread belief that our political system is broken: Americans’ disdain for the political system has been captured in numerous polls, showing voters are dissatisfied with a potential Biden-Trump rematch — “a uniquely horrible choice,” as the headline quote from one voter put it.
Team Trump is certain that only the former president can preserve democracy, save the nation from the southern border “invasion,” and stop President Biden’s “corruption,” along with the “weaponization” of his Justice Department.
Conversely, Democrats believe Biden will save democracy and the country from Trump, who will otherwise be an authoritarian ruler, shredding the Constitution.
So the political system is at least broken enough to lock in two flawed, unpopular candidates well past their prime and — along with all of the above — set America on a declining glide-path.
Let’s hope that whatever remains of American exceptionalism will triumph over and reverse the forces of decline.
Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.
