Ambiguities and challenges of the peace process the government and the Taliban in Afghanistan

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs

Finally, after two years of consultations and negotiations, the peace agreement between the US and the Taliban was signed in Doha, Qatar. But regarding the negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban, this is the first time that the two sides are ready for peace talks, and negotiations are practically underway. In the following article, we will address the most important ambiguities and challenges of the peace process.

Technical Problems of Negotiations:

Afghan government delegations and the Taliban seem to disagree on important issues of the peace negotiation agenda (more than 20 articles). Therefore, the two delegations must reach a common agreement on the principles of negotiations, the time setting of talks and the type of negotiations. Meanwhile, achieving the common principles of the negotiation is the most important part of it. In fact, the third party has little role as a facilitator.

Inconsistency within the Afghan government:

Holding a dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government under the title of the inter-Afghan dialogue, needs a powerful government in the country. If Mr. Ghani and Mr. Abdullah do not reach a full consensus on holding negotiation with the Taliban, presented by of all sections of the society, it will weaken the government’s position in negotiations with the Taliban.

Changing of the constitution and the system of the country: In holding negotiations and participating in the peace talks with the Taliban, the government of Afghanistan seeks to ensure the national interests of the government and the people of Afghanistan.

In the eyes of the Afghan government, to uphold a successful talk with the Taliban, requires the group to respect the Afghan constitution, cutting ties with al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups, and renounce violence.

However, it should be noted that the manner of talks, the extent of the Taliban’s participation in the political process, the amendment of the constitution, the integration of the Taliban into the government, and the separation of the Afghan and non-Afghan Taliban are important challenges to the agreement.

Meanwhile, some minorities and opposition parties seem to see the return of the Taliban to power as a precondition for the elimination of some political factions and the strengthening of the Pashtuns, so, do not accept it. In fact, the Taliban want a full return to power. On the other hand, the government seeks to maintain the current constitutional framework and the current situation.

If an agreement is reached, the task of shifting power must be specified. It must be defined that at what level and in what form will the constitutional amendment be? And it must be explained that if the Taliban have a clear definition of their absolute Islamic system or not?

It also looks likely that if the Taliban enter power in Afghanistan, the country will likely become federal; with each of the four major ethnic groups will has its own share in Kabul according to its political weight. Therefore, the acceptance of these issues by the Taliban is an important challenge.

Lack of internal unity in Taliban:

Disagreements between Taliban factions are an obstacle to reaching to a conclusion in peace talks; so position taking of opponent figures in Taliban and the type of the current disagreements between the factions and influential figures in the group are so important.

In fact, part of the major shift in the Taliban negotiating team was an attempt by the group’s core leadership to increase their control over the Doha talks before the start of direct peace talks in Qatar.

However, the presence of Ishaqzai, Mullah Baradar and Stanekzai in the negotiating team indicates a ‘good start’, but some dissatisfied elements in Taliban may reject the peace process or follow ISIL or other extremist groups.

Continuation of Violence:

As inter-Afghan talks intensify, Abdullah Abdullah said in his speech that “We want a humanitarian ceasefire.” In fact, the government’s goal in Doha is to establish a ceasefire and ensure peace in the country.

But the Taliban do not seem to easily agree to a ceasefire, as the group sees the war as its point of strength, and a support for winning inter-Afghan talks and its diplomacy.

The government seems to be in favor of an immediate ceasefire, but the Taliban are pursuing a gradual one, tying it to seek concessions and confidence-building. The Taliban believe that the ceasefire should be final.

Pakistan’s impact on the outcome of peace with Taliban:

The United States appears to have used all the necessary leverage to force Pakistan to press the Taliban for peace. But it must be said that the continuation of Pakistan’s cooperation and support approach is an important element, and the Islamabad approach could have a significant impact on the outcome of the government’s peace with the Taliban.

Afghanistan peace process and victory for Trump:

Achieving dialogue between the Afghan government and the Taliban during Trump’s presidency could be a bargaining chip for Trump in the run-up to the 2020 election. The United States has previously said it will monitor the Taliban’s compliance with its commitments and plan to evacuate its forces in line with the Taliban’s future actions.

In fact, although the United States wants an inter-Afghan peace agreement reached quickly by November, peace talks in Afghanistan may take a long time due to the fundamental problems of the negotiators.  Under these circumstances, Trump may pursue a roadmap to get out of Afghanistan in the long run with the least casualties and the lowest cost, in a way that requires some kind of initial inter-Afghan peace agreement.

Under these circumstances, the kind of US presence in the negotiations and the emphasis on reaching an initial agreement may leave the differences between the two sides unresolved.

Social and cultural barriers to Taliban presence in Afghanistan:

The Taliban can no longer form the “Islamic Emirate” in Afghanistan as they once did when they took full power. Civil society in Afghanistan has always been evolving.

Women in Afghanistan today find themselves in the middle of the field and working for this important cause. The growing trend of urbanization has taken society to a point where it can no longer comply with the Taliban’s totalitarian demands. In addition, the Taliban are almost a group based on a specific ethnicity and religion. Therefore, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and other ethnic groups in Afghanistan are dissatisfied and afraid of the Taliban’s cultural and social domination of power.

Also, the problem also becomes more widespread when the Taliban group seeks to dominate its religious and ethnic views over the rights of religious and ethnic minorities, women’s rights, freedom of thought, and democracy.

Vision:

The process of peace and achieving comprehensive peace between the government and the Taliban in Afghanistan is very difficult. In fact, although some progress has been made, but we cannot hope to solve it in the short term.

If challenges such as the type of security, the Taliban’s commitment to human rights, the rights of women and religious minorities, inclusive elections and freedom, the future of Afghanistan’s political system, the integration of Afghanistan’s current police and army, or the other military force require more intensive and long bargaining.