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Future scenarios about a potential U.S.-China nuclear war in Taiwan and South China Sea

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Nadia Helmy

In light of the recent accusations leveled by the US Department of Defense “the Pentagon” against China, regarding the development of its nuclear capabilities at a pace that threatens the United States of America, the international military question has arisen strongly, about:  The path of the new global armament?, especially with what a number of American military and strategists have raised about the current trend towards (a tripartite or multipolar nuclear world and international nuclear parties), in reference to the American, Chinese and Russian nuclear power, as well as the Pakistani, Indian and North Korean nuclear powers, and others.

But, the Egyptian researcher will focus mainly, as an expert in Chinese political affairs, on Beijing’s nuclear capabilities and the extent and how of their use and employment by China in the event of a war with the United States over Taiwan. This is as follows:

China is now fully committed to developing what it knows (smart ways of war or future military methods), which are those methods that rely on advanced technological techniques, in particular artificial intelligence techniques.  And granted (the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences) a mandate to ensure that this is achieved, through the “merging of military-civilian sectors”, ie: a merger between the technologies of private sector companies in China and the institutions of Chinese military industries.

Here, China may already be doing (using artificial intelligence in the fields of military robots and missile guidance systems, as well as in the fields of aircraft and unmanned gunboats). China has already conducted several large-scale cyber operations outside its borders.

We find that during July 2021, the United States, the European Union and Britain pointed the finger at China of being responsible for a major cyber attack targeting (Microsoft Exchange servers). The Chinese attack is believed to have harmed more than 30,000 companies worldwide, and was intended to facilitate large-scale espionage, including the Chinese acquisition of personal data and intellectual property.

From my point of view, I believe that Western and American officials themselves have tended to (exaggerate the threat posed by Chinese hypersonic missiles, as they seek to prove the necessity of providing the relevant funding for the development of military space technologies). Hence, we can consider that the Chinese nuclear threat, even if it is real, may be exaggerated by Washington and the West.

Chinese President Comrade “Xi Jinping” pledged to fully modernize the Chinese armed forces by 2035, while stressing the (commitment of his country’s armed forces to become a “globally superior” military force capable of “fighting wars and achieving victory in them” by 2049). China itself criticizes the level of the US nuclear stockpile, which contains 5,500 nuclear warheads, at a time when the accelerating pace of Chinese nuclear armament is seen as one of the most serious threats to Western military supremacy.

In this regard, China is trying to work on (developing the speed of hypersonic missiles to five times the speed of sound). Although their speeds are not equivalent to the speeds of intercontinental ballistic missiles, which makes it difficult to monitor them during their flight, one of the most important (advanced Chinese air defense systems in confronting any US violations of its neighboring and direct territorial borders in the future).

China’s fears of the US-Western nuclear race increased in its confrontation, especially after the signing of the “Aukus Military Defense Nuclear Submarine Agreement with Australia”, led by the United States of America with Australia and Britain. That is why the Chinese state media criticized the agreement in several editorials, and the Chinese official newspaper “Global Times” confirmed that: “Australia has now turned itself into a nuclear opponent of China, due to the United States of America sharing its nuclear submarine technology for the first time in 50 years, after  the USA has only shared its nuclear capabilities with Britain”.

Under the Aukus Nuclear Submarine Defense Agreement, (Australia will be able to build faster nuclear-powered submarines, and therefore they will be difficult to detect through conventionally powered navies, and they can remain in the water for several months), as well as their ability to launch missiles over long distances, though Australia says it has no intention of equipping it with nuclear weapons.

The most prominent Chinese military analyzes and writings indicate that the (People’s Liberation Army) will remove all US military bases and aircraft carriers in the (Indo-Pacific) region between the Indo-Pacific oceans, and on the banks of the Taiwan Strait and the South and East China Seas. Emphasizing the (deterrent power of the Chinese nuclear arsenal, and its nuclear ability to repel all the attacks of the United States of America on the Chinese mainland).

In order to achieve American military superiority over China, a number of American military and strategists believe that striking the Chinese mainland’s nuclear bases at the outbreak of any conflict is important, believing that (the superiority of American nuclear power will deter China from responding or reciprocating). However, the military expectations of the US and Chinese sides indicate that the use of nuclear weapons by any party, or the Chinese and US parties together, may cause a large-scale war to erupt rather than prevent it from happening.

Chinese military analyzes also confirm that the war between China and the United States of America near the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea is likely to turn into a nuclear war, emphasizing that in order to change the course of the war for the losing or defeated party, the party that will lose its war with  The other, may have to compensate for his loss and defeat, by displaying his nuclear power and tactical nuclear weapons to strike the winning side, by using several (tactical nuclear weapons, that is, using a number of warheads of limited power, but they can accurately destroy military targets).

In the event that China succeeds in paralyzing and obstructing the American military force near the areas of direct Chinese influence, Washington may respond to China to save its face in front of its people and other international and regional powers to save Taiwan, for fear of an invasion by China, through the possibility of (the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the United States of America against China’s ports, airports, sea and air fleets). This is not just a baseless analysis without real indications of it, as the US armed forces are currently developing nuclear weapons to deter China primarily in Taiwan and the South China Sea in the event of a war between them, through the development of Washington for the “cruise missile” program with nuclear warheads to be (launched by US nuclear submarines located near the areas of direct Chinese influence), the US military and its forces in the Indo-Pacific region could use these nuclear weapons, near China, to achieve an American nuclear military victory over China.

According to my analysis of the US-Chinese military scene, according to the indicators of nuclear power between them, I can understand that (the outbreak of a war between Washington and Beijing, may turn into a conflict in the region neighboring China in East and Southeast Asia as a whole, especially with the support of Washington’s allies after Washington signed “Quad Quartet Agreement” with Australia, Japan, and India. Besides, the “Aukus Military Defense Nuclear Submarine Agreement” between Washington, Australia and Britain). Thus, any US-Chinese conflict is likely to spread across many regions on several Asian fronts, and here either China or the United States of America may use their nuclear weapons to snatch victory when losing the war front.

For the direct preceding scenario, Chinese military analyzes indicate that the “People’s Liberation Army” (PLA) has begun an unprecedented expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The prominent Chinese military generals and strategists have stated that (China can use its nuclear weapons in the event of a war with American forces  near its borders, which poses a threat to the fate of the Asian region due to the use of each of the parties to the conflict with its nuclear arsenal in the face of the other). This is something that will almost certainly happen, because Beijing will be completely keen not to lose any war or potential conflict in the face of the United States of America over Taiwan.

Perhaps in my opinion, the threat to use the nuclear arsenal of China or the United States of America in defense of Taiwan, is just a (war of statements or propaganda wars or just speculation and military and psychological deception plans) to thwart each other, which may come in the form of (unofficial allegations and deception plans) between the American and Chinese parties. However, Chinese military analyzes confirm the possibility of China launching one of its nuclear weapons (perhaps against the huge US military bases in Guama near South Korea or the Japanese island of Okinawa or near them), especially in the event that China faces the possibility of any defeat it will not accept.  By Washington, and therefore will respond to it nuclear to compensate for its loss and defeat in any conflict, in order to restore China – even in the event of losing the war with the United States of America – to a tactical advantage or shock Washington into a cease-fire in the face of the armed and military forces of the People’s Liberation Army  Chinese.

Hence, we conclude that the last option that China or the United States of America has in the event of any open dispute between them over Taiwan is to try to avoid that nuclear war in the first place or as a first option, but instead of that, China may (expect to fight a long war to suffocate Taiwan) by besieging it, or perhaps bombing it to force it to surrender to mainland China, or (Chinese forces blowing up the American and Taiwanese electrical and communication networks through the use of several cyber attacks).

But on the other hand, China may be able to (using conventionally armed hypersonic missiles to strike targets in the American interior itself, or spreading many misleading Chinese information to limit the process of American progress and impulsion), which will require Washington and Taiwan to develop other tactical plans and measures, including: confronting any Chinese military measures, through several defensive preparations, most notably: (securing networks of sensitive importance, expanding the Taiwanese system for civilian shelters, increasing the Taiwanese island’s stockpile of fuel, food and medical supplies needed with American assistance).